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展望未来三年全球工业木屑颗粒市场

文章出处:本站 人气:89 发表时间:2018/2/6 10:31:16

在过去十年里,全球颗粒市场大幅增长,主要是由于工业需求。虽然颗粒供暖市场占据了全球大量的需求,但本文将主要讨论工业木屑颗粒领域。

Global pellet markets have increased significantly over the last decade, mostly because of demand from the industrial sector. While pellet heating markets make up a significant amount of global demand, this overview will focus on the industrial wood pellet sector.QQ截图20180206102623.jpg

图1:FutureMetrics对各国供暖颗粒需求的预测

Chart 1 shows FutureMetrics’ forecast for heating pellet demand by country

近几年来,颗粒供暖市场受到低替代燃料成本(石油和天然气价格)以及北美和欧洲冬季平均温度的影响。FutureMetrics预计,油价上涨和脱碳政策的影响将使21世纪20年代的颗粒需求回归增长趋势。

Pellet heating markets have been challenged in recent years by low alternative heating fuel costs (oil and gas prices) and warmer than average winters in North America and Europe. FutureMetrics expects that a combination of higher oil prices and de-carbonization policies will return demand growth to trend in the 2020s.

过去几年来,工业木屑颗粒行业发展得与供暖颗粒行业一样大,预计未来十年将大幅增长。

For the last several years, the industrial wood pellet sector was as large as the heating pellet sector, and is expected to become significantly larger over the next decade.

工业木屑颗粒市场是由碳减排和可再生能源发电政策推动的。工业木屑颗粒是一种低碳可再生燃料,可在大型公用发电站中替代煤炭。

The industrial wood pellet market is driven by carbon emissions mitigation and renewable generation policies. Industrial wood pellets are a low carbon renewable fuel that easily substitutes for coal in large utility power stations. 

颗粒可以用两种方式代替煤,包括全烧和共烧。全烧的话,意味着燃煤发电站的整个机组从使用煤转化为全部使用木屑颗粒。这要求对燃料处理、进料系统和燃烧器进行改进。共烧指是木屑颗粒与煤炭一起燃烧。在较低的共烧比率下,需要对现有的粉煤设施进行微小改动。 事实上,如果混合物中木屑颗粒较少的(不到7%),几乎不需要改动。Pellets can be substituted for coal in two ways, either a full conversion or co-firing. For a full conversion, an entire unit at a coal station is converted from using coal to using wood pellets. This requires modifications to the fuel handling, feed systems, and burners. Co-firing is the combustion of wood pellets along with coal. At lower co-firing ratios, minimal modifications to existing pulverized coal facilities are required. In fact, at lower blends (under about seven per cent) of wood pellets, almost no modification is required.

QQ截图20180206102703.jpg

图2:工业木屑颗粒市场---历史实际需求和FutureMetrics的需求预测。

Chart 2 shows the historical actual demand and FutureMetrics’ demand forecast for industrial wood pellet markets. 

估计2017年的总需求量为1590万吨。

Aggregate demand in 2017 is estimated at 15.9 million metric tonnes.

如图2所示,预计到2020年,英国和欧盟的需求将保持高位。预计2020-2029年,日本和韩国的需求将出现大幅增长。预计到2025年,加拿大和美国将出现一些使用工业木屑颗粒的燃煤发电站。

As shown in Chart 2, demand in the U.K. and EU is expected to plateau by 2020. However, major growth is expected in Japan and South Korea in the 2020s. We also expect Canada and U.S. to have some pulverized coal power plants using industrial wood pellets by 2025.

预计到2025年,日本、欧盟、英国和韩国的新的大型公用事业共烧和转换项目,以及日本许多较小的独立发电站项目,每年将增加约2400万吨的当前需求量,主要增长来自日本和韩国。

New large utility co-firing and conversion projects in Japan, the EU and U.K., and South Korea, and many smaller independent power plant projects in Japan, are forecast to add about 24 million tons per year to current demand by 2025. Most of the expected growth is from Japan, and South Korea. 

FutureMetrics在所有预计将消耗木屑颗粒的项目上都保留了详细的项目特定数据库。欧盟和英国新增大部分预计需求的颗粒供应已经与现有主要生产商共同安排了。然而,日本和韩国市场为新的产能提供了机会,但是大部分产能目前还没有达到。

FutureMetrics maintains a detailed project-specific database on all the projects that are expected to be consuming wood pellets. Most of the supply of pellets for planned new demand in the EU and U.K. has already been arranged with major existing producers. However, the Japanese and S. Korean markets offer opportunity for new capacity that is, for the most part, not in the pipeline as of today.

欧洲英国

Europe and England

工业木屑颗粒行业的早期增长(2010年至今)来自西欧和英国。然而,欧洲的增长正在放缓,预计在21世纪20年代初达到平稳。其他欧洲工业木屑需求的增长将来自荷兰和英国的项目。

Early growth (2010 to the present) in the industrial wood pellet sector came from western Europe and the U.K. However, growth in Europe is slowing and is expected to level out in the early 2020s. The remaining growth in European industrial wood pellet demand will come from projects in the Netherlands and U.K.  

荷兰公用事业的需求仍然不确定,因为燃煤发电站已经推迟了共烧改造的最终投资决策,在他们得到保证之前,他们的燃煤发电站将能够继续经营。包括FutureMetrics在内的大多数分析师,都预计这些问题将得到解决,荷兰的需求将在未来3-4年内每年至少增长250万吨。如果已经获得补贴的四个燃煤发电站都按照计划进行,荷兰的需求可能会增加到每年350万吨。

Demand by the Dutch utilities is still uncertain, as coal plants have delayed final investment decisions around co-firing modifications until they are given assurances that their coal plants will be able to continue to operate. Most analysts, including FutureMetrics, expect these issues to be resolved and Dutch demand will likely grow by at least 2.5 million tonnes per year over the next three to four years. It is possible that Dutch demand will increase to up to 3.5 million tonnes per year if all four of the coal stations that have been awarded subsidies proceed with their plans. 

英国的两个项目,EPH公司的400MW Lynemouth发电站改造和MGT的Teeside greenfield热电联产电站目前正在调试或在建。Drax发电站最近宣布,它将转换第四个机组使用木屑颗粒运行。目前暂未清楚这个机组一年运行多少个小时。然而,鉴于已做出的投资决策,FutureMetrics估计,第四个机组每年将消耗90万吨。如果他们全年都能满负荷运行的话,Drax发电站的每个转换的机组每年可以消耗约250万吨木屑颗粒。FutureMetrics预计,在欧洲和英国的新的潜在需求总量为每年600万吨。

Two U.K. projects, EPH’s 400MW Lynemouth power station conversion and MGT’s Teeside greenfield CHP plant, are currently either in commissioning or under construction. Drax recently announced that it will convert a fourth unit to run on pellets. How many hours that unit will run in a year is unclear at this time. However, given that the investment decision has been made, FutureMetrics estimates that unit 4 will consume an additional 900,000 tonnes per year. Each converted unit at the Drax station can consume about 2.5 million tonnes per year if they run at full capacity all year. FutureMetrics projects total new probable demand in Europe and England at 6.0 million tonnes per year.

日本

Japan

日本的生物质能需求主要由三个政策因素决定:支持可再生能源的上网电价(FiT)、燃煤热电站效率标准和碳排放目标。

Biomass demand in Japan is primarily driven by three policy components: The Feed in Tariff (FiT) support scheme for renewable energy, coal thermal plant efficiency standards, and carbon emissions targets. 

上网电价(FiT)在一个延长的合同期内为独立发电企业(IPP)提供可再生能源的定价 - 20年生物质能源。目前,在上网电价(FiT)下,包括颗粒、进口木片和棕榈仁壳(PKS)在内的“普通木材”产生的电力,从9月30日之前的24日元/千瓦时降低到21日元/千瓦时,然而,获得较高FiT的生物质独立发电企业的分数被锁定在这个比率(按照目前的汇率大约为0.214美元/千瓦时)。

The FiT offers independent power producers (IPPs) a set price for renewable energy over an extended contract period – 20 years for biomass energy. Currently, under the FiT, electricity generated from “general wood,” which includes pellets, imported woodchips, and palm kernel shell (PKS), receives a subsidy of 21 ¥/kWh, down from 24 ¥/kWh prior to Sept. 30, 2017. However, the scores of biomass IPPs that have received the higher FiT are locked in at that rate (about $0.214/kWh at current exchange rates). 

日本经济产业省(METI)为2030年制定了所谓的“最佳能源结构”。在该计划中,2030年日本生物质发电占日本总发电量的4.1%,相当于2600万吨的颗粒(假设所有的生物质都是木屑颗粒)。

Japan’s Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (METI) has produced a so-called “Best Energy Mix” for 2030. In that plan, biomass power accounts for 4.1 per cent of Japan’s total electricity production in 2030. This is equivalent to over 26 million metric tonnes of pellets (if all the biomass were wood pellets). 

日本经济产业省于2016年发布了一份描述热电站最佳可用技术(BAT)效率标准的文件。该文件制定了发电机的最低能效标准。截至2016年,日本只有约三分之一的煤炭发电符合最佳可用技术效率标准。符合新效率标准的一种方式是共烧木屑颗粒。

In 2016, METI released a paper describing best available technology (BAT) efficiency standards for thermal plants. The paper develops minimum efficiency standards for power generators. As of 2016, only about one-third of Japan’s coal generation comes from plants that meet the BAT efficiency standard. One way to comply with the new efficiency standard is to co-fire wood pellets. 

电站效率通常是通过将能源输出除以能源输入来计算的。因此,例如,如果电站使用100 MWh的能源投入生产35 MWh,则该电站的运行效率为35%。

Plant efficiency is normally calculated by dividing energy output by energy input. So, for example, if power station uses 100 MWh of energy input to produce 35 MWh, that plant is operating at 35 per cent efficiency.

经济产业省已经允许生物质共烧的能源投入从投入中扣除。如果上述同一电厂共烧15 MWh木屑颗粒,新计算的电站效率为35 MWh /(100 MWh - 15 MWh)= 41.2%,高于效率标准阈值。根据最近由FutureMetrics发布的“日本生物质展望”报告,FutureMetrics公司已经计算出日本电站所要求的低效电站所需的木屑颗粒的吨数。报告中包含日本对木屑颗粒、棕榈仁壳和木片的预期需求的详细数据以及推动这一需求的政策。

METI has allowed energy input from biomass co-firing to be deducted from the input. If the same plant described above co-fires 15 MWh of wood pellets, the plant’s efficiency under the new calculation would be 35 MWh / (100 MWh – 15 MWh) = 41.2 per cent, which is above the efficiency standard threshold. FutureMetrics has calculated the tonnage of wood pellets that will be required by Japanese power plants to bring the lower efficiency plants in to compliance in the recently released Japanese Biomass Outlook report by FutureMetrics. The report contains detailed data on the expected demand for wood pellets, palm kernel shell, and wood chips in Japan and the policies that are driving that demand.

预测2025年,独立发电企业对未来颗粒需求的约为470万吨。这是基于对“日本生物质展望”报告中对140个独立发电企业的详细分析。

The FutureMetrics’ forecast for pellet demand by the smaller independent power producers (IPPs) is about 4.7 million tonnes per year by 2025. This is based on analysis of about 140 IPPs that are detailed in the Japanese Biomass Outlook. 

到2025年,日本公用事业电站和独立发电企业的潜在需求总量可能会超过每年1200万吨。

Total potential demand in Japan from utility power plants and from IPPs could exceed 12 million tonnes per year by 2025.

韩国

South Korea

近年来,韩国对工业木屑颗粒的需求迅速增长,这种趋势在未来几年可能会持续下去。2017年,韩国颗粒进口量约为225万吨。

Demand for industrial wood pellets in S. Korea has grown rapidly in recent years, a trend that could continue over the next several years. In 2017 S. Korean pellet imports were about 2.25 million metric tonnes.

一个难题。 大多数颗粒生产商和项目贷款人/投资者将不承诺在没有长期承购协议的情况下承担新的颗粒厂的资本支出。迄今为止,韩国公用事业公司尚未参与长期承购协议。需求的增长促使越南的产能快速增长,以满足韩国的招标要求。但是,这一需求已经使越南达到生产低成本颗粒的能力极限,而这些颗粒主要是由木制家具行业的废弃物制成的。如果没有长期的协议,很难想象颗粒产能如何跟上韩国需求的预期增长。然而,由于REC价格下跌的风险,韩国公用事业公司不能签订长期协议。

But the market price for RECs can vary significantly, unlike the guaranteed FiT in Japan; this creates a difficult problem for the market. Most pellet producers and project lenders/investors will not commit to the capital expense of a new pellet plant without a long-term offtake agreement. To date, S. Korean utilities have not engaged in long-term offtake agreements. Demand growth has spurred rapid growth in production capacity in Vietnam to satisfy S. Korean tenders. But that demand is already pushing the limits of Vietnam’s capacity to produce low cost pellets, which are mainly produced from residuals from the wooden furniture industry. It is difficult to conceive of how pellet production capacity can keep up with the expected growth in the S. Korean demand without long-term agreements. Yet, with the risk of falling REC prices, S. Korean utilities cannot engage in long-term agreements.

根据宣布的共烧和全烧项目的数据,如果REC价格足够高以补偿该地区竞争的预期成本较高,预计到2024年,韩国的年需求量将增加约900万吨。韩国的颗粒市场已经收紧。 越南的颗粒价格在过去六个月中从每吨95美元左右上涨到133美元(FOB越南)。

Based on data from announced co-firing and full-firing projects, S. Korean demand is expected to reach about nine million tonnes per year by 2024 if REC prices remain high enough to compensate for the expected higher cost of pellets as competition in the region increases. The pellet market into S. Korea is already tightening. Pellet prices in Vietnam have risen from around $95 to $133 per tonne (FOB Vietnam) in the last six months.

总结

Summary

能够肯定的是,欧洲工业颗粒市场持续发展。至于日本需求的话,一旦IPP项目启动运行,大型公用事业获得FiT的好处,也应该是稳定的,并有可能像所预测一样增长。由于RECs价格的不确定性,韩国的未来需求更难估计。总体而言,FutureMetrics估计,到2025年,工业木屑颗粒潜在的新需求量每年将超过2600万吨。

There is a high degree of confidence around the continued development of European industrial pellet markets. Japanese demand, once IPP projects are up and running and large utilities receive FiT benefits, should also be stable and is likely to grow as forecast. Future demand in S. Korea is more difficult to estimate due to the uncertainty in prices of RECs. Overall, FutureMetrics estimates the potential new demand for industrial wood pellets through 2025 is in excess of 26 million tonnes per year. 

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